Analytical Diaries

As I read through the X-Mas news and press the doomsday prophets of the Euro-Zone are multiplying like the snowmen these days. I tend to sway between “naa, it’ll never get that bad” and “what if this happens tomorrow” as I read about stress test scenarios putting the Euro at 50 Swiss Rappen. Suddenly a lot of weird knock-on effects come to mind:

• Swiss tourism and Swiss exports to European countries would seize to matter
• Many new import business would spring up in Switzerland
• People working (earning) in Europe and living in Switzerland would claim insolvency
• All our nicely groomed EUR portfolios and funds would collapse in spite of good performance
• Swiss mortgages might be drafted in EUR to speculate on a recovery in spite of the less favorable interest rates
• Paying your parking meters in Zurich in Euro is more advantageous as they still retain month old rates

But before we follow the financial crash-test dummies, I’d like to hear from you, whether you think, that the Euro crash scenario is just another trendy talk of the moment or if you follow the many experts in their prophecy that we’ll soon see EUR/CHF rates below 1 CHF per EUR?